Could The Democrats Possibly Win Harris County in 2014?

I am a liberal Democrat when it comes to national and state-wide politics. However, I would be really sick to see some of our wonderful Republican family judges go down in defeat in November 2014 if changing demographics and a well financed, high tech Democratic get-out-the vote effort does what we all know will happen sometime in this decade. I also do not want to see a spectacularly bad judge like Denise Pratt bring her really good Republican judicial colleagues down with her.

Under the headline, “Harris County Republicans in Trouble in 2014?” David Jennings wrote in his Houston Chronicle blog (click here to read the full story):

Then, you have a problem with some gosh awful incumbent judges (who will cost some very good incumbent judges their benches). I, and many of us in the party, will not push a “Vote Straight R” message unless these judges are upset via the primary, which is a very difficult thing to do. The Straight R campaign has been the bedrock of the last two campaigns – without it, we’re going to lose a few points and certainly increase the down ballot undervotes. Imagine a Harris County judicial system 75% in the control of Democrats because that is what it will look like after 2014.

Consider these numbers: in 2010, a total of 756,769 votes were cast in the race for the 311th District Court. Denise Pratt got 414,817 votes in the general election (54.81%). Three years later, in June 2013, over 400,000 people showed up for a Gay Pride in Festival in Houston. Harris County is even more Hispanic and less Anglo than it was just four years ago.

The Texas Observer in May 2013 ran a story about how Democratic efforts in Texas in 2014 will be focused on Harris County.

Click here to read that analysis.

My learned colleague Jared Woodfill’s worst nightmares (when he can get any sleep with that new baby) involve something called the “Colorado Model” and the millions of dollars that will be spent in the next 18 months by Battleground Texas in Harris County. Click here to read a story from The American Spectator that explains all this. Jared, the chair of the Harris County Republican Party (when he is not living on the 7th floor of the Family Law Center) can give a passionate analysis why 2010 was actually such a great election for Republicans and how Attorney General Abbott at the top of the ticket against Senator Wendy Davis will only boost GOP turnout in 2014.

Woodfill is a great guy and a very smart politician who knows his stuff, but as GOP chair he has to predict a Republican victory. Jared is, of course, reluctant to discuss with a shady character like me exactly what the two political parties are doing now to lay the groundwork for a victory in 2014. Click here to read about one of several expensive experiments done by Democrats in Harris County in 2012 (funded by out-of-state donors) to increase Hispanic voter turnout. The methods that proved effective in those limited experiments will be used county-wide in 2014.

My extremely Republican neighborhood in Clear Lake has already been canvassed at least three times by “public interest” groups identifying voters who are really interested in the environment, social security and modest immigration reform. Someone is spending a lot of money to have these intelligent, articulate young people go door to door collecting information on people who are very interested in certain issues that seem more aligned with the Democratic party. This is what the Democrats did in Virginia leading up to the 2010 election and their massive database was able to peel off enough seemingly conservative voters to give Obama a victory in that state that has historically voted for Republicans for President.

I am not saying a Democratic judicial sweep of Harris County will happen in 2014 and I frankly think it is unlikely, but it could and it almost certainly will happen by 2018.